smithing

Discussion in 'Renaissance Discussion' started by lilbear68, Aug 3, 2013.

  1. lilbear68

    lilbear68 New Member

    as gm smith im wondering if im doing something wrong, when i look at the guide to make a piece of plate it says i have a 20% chance of exceptional if my math is right that means that 1 piece in 5 should be exceptional or 2 in 10 etc. etc. but it doesnt explain why im having 6-8-10 consecutive failures. i make sure my toon is fed and everything else is right as far as i know. if im missing something someone please advise
  2. davechill

    davechill New Member

    random is random
  3. Upgrayedd

    Upgrayedd Renaissance Volunteers
    Renaissance Volunteers

    Sometimes you just get a bad run of luck. Also, eating will have zero impact on smithing.
  4. lilbear68

    lilbear68 New Member

    so im going to assume that the 20% exceptional chance is just crap and its a some times it works and other times it dont
  5. corruption

    corruption Well-Known Member
    UO:R Subscriber

    20% is a rough mathematical average, based on rate over time. Its accurate; you are simply taking too small of a sample to see it. If you flip a coin 50 times, and get 45 heads -- it doesn't mean there wasn't a 50/50 chance to get it, it just means you didn't get tails 45 of those times.
  6. Ciet

    Ciet Active Member
    Server Supporter

    The statistic is not additive. 20% chance every time.
  7. Gideon Jura

    Gideon Jura Well-Known Member
    Server Supporter

    .
    Last edited: Jan 11, 2019
  8. lilbear68

    lilbear68 New Member

    well i appreciate some of the response.
    i just come to the conclusion that to be able to sustain this kind of loss trying to fill 1 of the larger colored bods and as rare as the higher colors are that the system seems to be heavily slanted in favor of the afk/multiple account/macro miners. IMHO i dont want do that because it seems it would lose some of the flavor of the game so ill just keep on keepin on and puttin the colored bods large and small in the trash barrel
  9. Pirul

    Pirul Well-Known Member
    UO:R Subscriber

    Don't put them in the trash, I'm sure many people would buy/trade for them
  10. Ruck

    Ruck Well-Known Member
    UO:R Subscriber

    ^
  11. Gideon Jura

    Gideon Jura Well-Known Member
    Server Supporter

    .
    Last edited: Jan 11, 2019
    compsays likes this.
  12. Tater Salad

    Tater Salad Renaissance Volunteers
    Renaissance Volunteers

    I like this guys style.

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